Party affiliation predicts homeowners’ decisions to install solar PV, but partisan gap wanes with improved economics of solar

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

(with Fedor Dokshin)

The perceived risk of climate change and the sense of urgency for an energy transition are both politically polarized, especially in the United States. Yet, we know relatively little about how political polarization affects consumer energy preferences and behaviors. Here, we use the case of residential solar photovoltaics (PV) in New York State to 1) measure the partisan gap in solar adoption rates and 2) test whether more favorable economics of solar PV mute the effect of political identity. Using household-level, longitudinal data that include nearly 63,000 completed residential PV projects, we find evidence of a partisan gap in PV adoption. Democratic homeowners are approximately 1.45 times as likely to adopt solar PV as Republican homeowners. Republicans’ rate of adoption is the lowest of all measured groups, behind Independents, unaffiliated voters, and homeowners not registered to vote. Crucially, however, Republicans in our sample appear to be the most attuned to the changing economics and financing options of solar PV. Our estimates suggest that 1) as homeowners’ electricity rate increases relative to its long-run average, the adoption gap between Democrats and Republicans narrows, 2) that Republican PV adopters obtain systems with higher expected economic value, and 3) Republicans take greater advantage of alternative financing models, like leases and power purchase agreements, especially when the upfront costs of solar are high. The results demonstrate that political identity affects consumers’ participation in the energy transition, but local context, including the local economics of solar, may mitigate the effect of personal politics.

Closing the green gap? Changing disparities in residential solar installation and the importance of regional heterogeneity

Energy Research and Social Science

(with Fedor A. Dokshin and Brian Thiede)

The push to accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources raises questions about how associated costs and benefits are distributed. The likelihood that individuals and communities benefit from access to solar photovoltaics (PV) may vary systematically, between social groups and across space. The present study leverages high-resolution and uniquely comprehensive data on nearly all residential solar PV installations in New York State to measure disparities (and their trends over time) in PV deployment across three axes: ethno-racial composition, income, and rural-urban status. We identify notable differences in solar PV adoption rates across all three dimensions and show that deployment gaps changed dramatically between 2010 and 2020. White-majority census tracts maintained a substantial advantage in PV adoption early on, but minority-majority tracts narrowed and eventually overtook White-majority tracts in terms of variable-adjusted PV deployment rates in New York. However, PV deployment gaps across income and rural-urban status have largely persisted. Finally, an analysis comparing deployment trends across three regions of New York State reveals that trends in a single region, consisting largely of New York City, account for major shifts in overall disparities. The important implication is that policies and market processes unfolding at the local level critically shape distributional outcomes in PV deployment.